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It was eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a symptom or the source for the side's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. When the England international drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

It remains an exceptionally difficult query to answer. History, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.

Per the data, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear curiously susceptible – but at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened versus United.

The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Logic says not. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward now would be leading a title charge and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers faced the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.